Elaboration." American Sociological Review 40:825-829. Faloutsos, M., P. Faloutsos, and C. Faloutsos, 1999,"On Power-law
Relationships of the Internet Topology." Computer Communications
Review 29:251-262.^
Favier, A., 1906,Un medecingrec du deuxieme siecle ap. J.-C, precurseur
de la methode exptrimentale moderne: Menodote de Nicomedie. Paris:
Jules Roisset.
Ferguson, Niall, 2005,1914:Why the World Went to War. London:
Penguin.
,2006a,The War of the World: History's Age of Hatred. London:
Allen Lane.
,2006b,"Political Risk and the International Bond Market
Between the 1848Revolution and the Outbreak of the First World
War." Economic History Review 59(1):70-112. Ferraro, К. E, and J. A. Kelley-Moore, 2003,"Cumulative Disadvantage
and Health: Long-term Consequences of Obesity?" American
Sociological Review 68:707-729. Feyerabend, Paul, 1987,Farewell to Reason. London: Verso. Finucane, M. L., A. Alhakami, P. Slovic, and S. M. Johnson, 2000,"The
Affect a Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits." Journal of
Behavioral Decision Making 13:1-17. Fischhoff, Baruch, 1982a,"Debiasing." In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and
A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
,1982b,"For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Heuristics
and Biases in Hindsight." In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky,
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press. Fischhoff, В., and D. MacGregor, 1983,"Judged Lethality: How Much
People Seem to Know Depends on How They Are Asked." Risk Analysis
3:229-236.
Fischhoff, Baruch, Paul Slovic, and Sarah Lichtenstein, 1977,"Knowing i with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence." Journal of Experimental Psychology 3(4):552-564.
Floridi, Luciano, 2002,The Transmission and Recovery of Pyrrhonism.
Oxford: Oxford University Press. Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl, 2002,
"Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects—Error or Lie."
American Journal of Planning 68(3),http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/
JAPAASPUBLISHED.pdf. Fodor, Jerry A., 1983,The Modularity of Mind: An Essay on Faculty
Psychology. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. Foster, George, 1977,"Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-series Properties and Predictive Ability Results." Accounting Review 52:1-21. Fox, M. A., and P. Kochanowski, 2004,"Models of Superstardom: An
Application of the Lotka and Yule Distributions." Popular Music and
Society 27:507-522.Frame, Donald M., 1965,Montaigne: A Biography. New York: Harcourt
Brace and World.
Frank, Jerome D., 1935,"Some Psychological Determinants of the Level of Aspiration." American Journal of Psychology 47:285-293.
Frank, Robert, 1994,"Talent and the Winner-Take-All Society." A review of Derek Bok's The Cost of Talent: How Executives and Professionals Are Paid and How It Affects America, New York: The Free Press, 1993,in The American Prospect 5(17),http://www.prospect.org/cs/ articles?article=talent_and_the_winnertakeall_society
Frank, Robert H., 1985,Choosing the Right Pond: Human Behavior and the Quest for Status. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Frank, Robert H., and P. J. Cook, 1995,The Winner-Take-All Society: Why the Few at the Top Get So Much More Than the Rest of Us. New York: The Free Press.
Frankfurter, G. M., and E. G. McGoun, 1996,Toward Finance with Meaning: The Methodology of Finance: What It Is and What It Can Be. Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press.
Freedman, D. A., and P. B. Stark, 2003,"What Is the Chance of an
Earthquake?" Technical Report 611of the Department of Statistics,
University of California, Berkeley, September 2001,revised January
2003.
Friesen, Geoffrey, and Paul A. Weller, 2002,"Quantifying Cognitive Biases in Analyst Earnings Forecasts." Working Paper, University of Iowa.
Frohlich,N.,J.A.Oppenheimer,andC.L.Eavy,1987a,"Laboratory ResultsonRawls'sDistributiveJustice."British Journal of Political Science 17:1-21.
,1987b,"ChoicesofPrinciplesofDistributiveJusticeinExperimen-
talGroups."AmericanJournal of Political Science 31(3):606-636.
Froot,K.A.,2001,"TheMarketforCatastropheRisk:AClinicalExamination,"Journal of Financial Economics 60(2-3):529-571.
Fukuyama,Francis,1992,The End of History and the Last Man. New York:TheFreePress.
Fuller,Steve,2005,The Intellectual. London:IconBooks.
Fulton,Alice,1998,"FractalAmplifications:WritinginThreeDimen-
sions."Thumbscrew 12(winter).
Gabaix,X.,P.Gopikrishnan,V.Plerou,andH.E.Stanley,2003, "ATheoryofPower-lawDistributionsinFinancialMarketFluc-tuations."Nature 423:267-270.
Gaddis,JohnLewis,2002,The Landscape of History: How Historians Map
the Past. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress. Galbraith,JohnKenneth,1997,The Great Crash 1929.NewYork:
MarinerBooks.
Galison,Peter,2003,Einstein's Clocks, Poincare's Maps: Empires of Time.
NewYork:W.W.NortonandCompany. Gave,Charles,AnatoleKaletsky,andLouis-VincentGave,2005,Our
Brave New World. London:GaveKalResearch. Gazzaniga,M.S.,R.Ivry,andG.R.Mangun,2002,Cognitive Neu-
roscience: The Biology of the Mind, 2nded.NewYork:W.W.Norton
andCompany.
Gazzaniga,Michael,andJosephLeDoux,1978,The Integrated Mind. *PlenumPress.
Gazzaniga,MichaelS.,2005,The Ethical Brain. NewYork:DanaPress.
Gehring,W.J.,andA.R.Willoughby,2002,"TheMedialFrontalCortexandtheRapidProcessingofMonetaryGainsandLosses."Science 295:2279-2282.
Gelman,S.A.,1988,"TheDevelopmentofInductionWithinNatural KindandArtifactCategories."Cognitive Psychology 20:65-95.
Gelman,S.A.,andJ*.D.Coley,1990,"TheImportanceofKnowinga
DodoIsaBird:CategoriesandInferencesinTwo-year-oldChildren."
Developmental Psychology 26:796-804.,i
Gelman,S.A.,andL.A.Hirschfeld,1999,"HowBiologicalIs
Essentialism?"InD.L.MedinandS.Atran,eds.,Folkbiology.
Cambridge,Mass.:TheMITPress. Gelman,S.A.,andE.M.Markman,1986,"CategoriesandInductionin
YoungChildren."Cognition 23:183-209. Gervais,Simon,andTerranceOdean,1999,"LearningtoBe
Overconfident."WorkingPaper,UniversityofPennsylvania. Gigerenzer,G.,P.M.Todd,andtheABCResearchGroup,2000,Simple
Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress. Gigerenzer,Gerd,1984,"ExternalValidityofLaboratoryExperiments:
TheFrequency-ValidityRelationship."American Journal ofPsychology
97:185-195.
,1987,"SurvivaloftheFittestProbabilist:Brunswik,Thurstone,
andtheTwoDisciplinesofPsychology."InL.Kriiger,G.Gigerenzer, andM.S.Morgan,eds.,The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol.2:Ideas in the Sciences. Cambridge,Mass.:TheMITPress.
,1991,"FromToolstoTheories:AHeuristicofDiscoveryin
CognitivePsychology."Psychological Review 98(2):254-267.
Gigerenzer,G.,J.Czerlinski,andL.Martignon,2002,"HowGood AreFastandFrugalHeuristics?"InT.Gilovich,D.Griffin,and D.Kahneman,eds.,2002.
Gigerenzer,G.,andD.G.Goldstein,1996,"ReasoningtheFastand
FrugalWay:ModelsofBoundedRationality."Psychological Review
103:650-669.
Gigerenzer,Gerd,W.Hell,andH.Blank,1988,"Presentationand Content:TheUseofBaseRatesasaContinuousVariable."Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 14:513-525.
Gigerenzer,G.,U.Hoffrage,andH.Kleinbolting,1991,"Probabilistic MentalModels:ABrunswikianTheoryofConfidence."Psychological Review 98:506-528.
Gigerenzer,G.,andH.R.Richter,1990,"ContextEffectsandTheir InteractionwithDevelopment:AreaJudgments."Cognitive Development 5:235-264.
Gigerenzer,G.,Z.Swijtink,T.Porter,L.J.Daston,J.Beatty,and L.Kriiger,1989,The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.
Gilbert,D.,E.Pinel,T.D.Wilson,S.Blumberg,andT.Weatley,2002,
"DurabilityBiasinAffectiveForecasting."InT.Gilovich,D.Griffin,
andD.Kahneman,eds.,2002. Gilbert,Daniel,2006,Stumbling on Happiness. NewYork:Knopf. Gilbert,DanielТ.,1991,"HowMentalSystemsBelieve."American
Psychologist 46:107-119. Gilbert,DanielТ.,RominW.Tafarodi,andPatrickS.Malone,1993,
"YouCan'tNotBelieveEverythingYouRead."Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology 65:221-233. Gillespie,JohnV.,1979,ReviewofWilliamAscher'sForecasting: An
Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners in The American Political
Science Review 73(2):554-555-Gillies,Donald,2000,Philosophical Theories of Probability. London:
Routledge.
Gilovich,Т.,D.Griffin,andD.Kahneman,eds.,2002,Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress.
Gladwell,Malcolm,1996,"TheTippingPoint:WhyIstheCitySuddenly SoMuchSafer—CouldItBeThatCrimeReallyIsanEpidemic?"The оNewYorker, June3.
,2000,The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big
Difference. NewYork:Little,Brown.
,2002,"BlowingUp:HowNassimTalebTurnedtheInevitabilityof
-DisasterintoanInvestmentStrategy."The New Yorker, April22and29. Glenzel,W.,2003,Bibliometrics as a Research Field: A Course on the
Theory and Application ofBibliometric Indicators. Preprint. Gleik,James,1987,Chaos: Making a New Science. London:Abacus. Glimcher,Paul,2002,Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain: The Science
ofNeuroeconomics. Cambridge,Mass.:TheMITPress. Goldberg,Elkhonon,2001,The Executive Brain: Frontal Lobes and the
Civilized Mind. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.
,2005,TheWisdom Paradox: How Your Mind Can Grow Stronger
as Your Brain Grows Older. NewYork:Gotham. Goleman,Daniel,1995,Emotional Intelligence: Why It Could Matter
.. More Than IQ. NewYork:BantamBooks.
,2003,Destructive Emotions, How Can We Overcome Them?
A Scientific Dialogue with the Dalai Lama. NewYork:Bantam.
sSeun
Goodman,N.,1955,Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Cambridge,Mass.:
HarvardUniversityPress.
,1972,"SevenStricturesonSimilarity."InN.Goodman,ed.,
Problems and Projects. NewYork:Bobbs-Merrill. Gopnik,A.,C.Glymour,D.M.Sobel,L.E.Schulz,T.Kushnir,and
D.Danks,2004,"ATheoryofCausalLearninginChildren:Causal
MapsandBayesNets."Psychological Review 111:3-32. Granger,Clive}N.J.,igggyEmpiricalModelinginEconomics: Specification
and Evaluation. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. Gray,John,2002,Straw Dogs: Thoughts on Humans and Other Animals.
London:GrantaBooks. Green,Jack,1962,Fire the Bastards! NewYork:DalkeyArchivePress. Green,К.C,2005,"GameTheory,SimulatedInteraction,andUnaided
JudgementforForecastingDecisionsinConflicts:FurtherEvidence."
International Journal of Forecasting 21:463-472. Griffin,D.W.,andA.Tversky,1992,"TheWeighingofEvidenceandthe
DeterminantsofConfidence."Cognitive Psychology 24:411-435. Griffin,D.W,andC.A.Varey,1996,"TowardsaConsensusonOver-confidence."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes