Шрифт:
Интервал:
Закладка:
Футурологическая слепота — наша естественная неспособность принимать в расчет свойства будущего; сродни аутизму, который мешает принимать в расчет наличие других сознаний.
Эпилогизм — свободный от всяческих теорий подход к истории, состоящий в накоплении необобщаемых фактов и основанный на осознании опасности выискивания причин.
Библиография
Abarbanell, Jeffery S., and Victor L. Bernard, 1992, «Test of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction of Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior.» Journal of Finance 47:1181–1207.
Aczel, Amir D, 2004, Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else. New York: Thunder's Mouth Press.
Adamic, Lada, 1999, «The Small World Web.» Lecture Notes in Computational Science 1696: 443–452.
Adamic, Lada, and Bernardo A. Huberman, 1999, «The Nature of Markets in the World Wide Web.» Quarterly Journal of Electronic Commerce 1:5–12.
Albert, R., and A.-L. Barabasi, 2000, «Topology of Evolving Networks: Local Events and Universality.» Physical Review Letters 85:5234–5237.
Albert, R., H. Jeong, and A.-L. Barabasi, 2000, «Error and Attack Tolerance of Complex Networks.» Nature 406: 378–382.
Albouy, Fran<;ois-Xavier, 2002, Le temps des catastrophes. Paris: Descartes &Cie.
Al-Ghazali, 1989, «Mikhtarat Min Ahthar Al-Ghazali.» In Saliba, Jamil, Tarikh Al Falsafa AL Arabian. Beirut: Al Sharikah Al Ahlamiah Lilk-itab.
Allen, Mark S., 2006, «Transformations in Maori Warfare: Toa, Pa, and Pu.» In Elizabeth N. Arkush and Mark W. Allen, 2006.
Allen, Michael, 2003, The Truth About Writing. Wiltshire: Kingsfield Publications.
-, 2005, On the Survival of Rats in the Slushpile: Essays and Criticism. Wiltshire: Kingsfield Publications.
Allport, D. A., 1975, «The State of Cognitive Psychology.» Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 27:141–152.
Allwood, С. M., and H. Montgomery, 1987, «Response Selection Strategies and Realism of Confidence Judgments.» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39:365–383.
Alpert, M., and H. Raiffa, 1982, «A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.» In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. TVersky, eds., 1982.
Amaral, L. A. N., A. Scala, M. Barthelemy, and H. E. Stanley, 2000, «Classes of Behavior of Small-world Networks.» Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 97:11149-11152.
Anderson, Benedict, 1983, Imagined Communities. New York: Verso.
Anderson, Chris, 2006, The Long Tail. New York: Hyperion.
Anderson, N. H., 1986, «A Cognitive Theory of Judgment and Decision.» In B. Brehmer, H. Jungermann, P. Lourens, and G. Sevon, eds., New Directions in Research on Decision Making. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Angele, U., B. Beer-Binder, R. Berger, C. Bussmann, H. Kleinbolting, and B. Mansard, 1982, Uber-und Unterschatzung des eigenen Wissens in Ahhangigkeit von Geschlecht und Bildungsstand (Overestimation and Underestimation of One's Knowledge as a Function of Sex and Education). Unpublished manuscript, University of Konstanz, Federal Republic of Germany.
Angner, Erik, 2006, «Economists as Experts: Overconfidence in Theory and Practice.» Journal of Economic Methodology 13(1): 1–24.
Annas, Julia, and Julian Barnes, 1985, Modes of Skepticism. Cambridge-Cambridge University Press. Arkes, H. R., C. Christensen, C. Lai, and C. Blumer, 1987, «Two Methods of Reducing Overconfidence.» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39:133–144.
Arkes, H. R., and K. R. Hammond, 1986, Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Arkush, Elizabeth N., and Mark W. Allen, eds., 2006, The Archaeology of Warfare: Prehistories of Raiding and Conquest. Gainesville: University of Florida Press.
Armelius, В., and K. Armelius, 1974, «The Use of Redundancy in Multiple-cue Judgments: Data from a Suppressor-variable task.» American Journal of Psychology 87: 385–392.
Armelius, K., 1979, «Task Predictability and Performance as Determinants of Confidence in Multiple-cue Judgments.» Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 20:19–25.
Armstrong, J. Scott, 1978, «Are Econometricians Useful? Folklore Versus Fact.» Journal of Business 51(4): 549–564.
-, 1981, «How Expert Are the Experts?» Inc., Dec. 1981:15–16.
Aron, Raymond, 1961, Dimensions de la conscience historique. Paris: Agora.
Arrow, Kenneth, 1987, «Economic Theory and the Postulate of Rationality.» In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987, 2: 69–74.
Arthur, Brian W., 1994, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Astebro, Thomas, 2003, «The Return to Independent Invention: Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?» Economic Journal 113(484): 226–239.
Ashiya, Masahiro, and Takero Doi, 2001, «Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists.» Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 46:343–346.
Attewell, P., 2001, «The Winner-take-all High School: Organizational Adaptations to Educational Stratification.» Sociology of Education 74: 267–295.
Ayache, E., 2004a, «The Back of Beyond,» Wilmott (Spring): 26–29.
-, 2004b, «A Beginning, in the End,» Wilmott (Winter): 6–11.
Ayer, A. J., 1958, The Problem of Knowledge. London: Penguin Books,
-, 1972, Probability and Evidence. New York: Columbia University Press.
-, 1988, Voltaire. London: Faber and Faber.
Ayton, P., and A. G. R. McClelland, 1997, «How Real Is Overconfidence?» Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10:153–285.
Baddeley, Alan, 1997, Human Memory: Theory and Practice. London: Psychology Press.
Bak, Per, 1996, How Nature Works. New York: Copernicus.
Bak, P., and K. Chen, 1991, «Self-organized criticality.» Scientific American 264:46–53.
Ball, Philip, 2004, Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another. London: Arrow Books.
-, 2006, «Econophysics: Culture Crash.» Nature 441: 686–688.
Banavar, J. R., F. Colaiori, A. Flammini, A. Maritan, and A. Rinaldo, 2000, «A Topology of the Fittest Transportation Network.» Physical Review Letters 84: 4745–4748.
Barabási, Albert-Laszlo, 2002, Linked: The New Science of Networks.Boston: Perseus Publishing.
Barabási, Albert-Laszlo, and Reka Albeit, 1999, «Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks.» Science 286:509–512.
Barabási, Albert-Laszlo, Reka Albert, and H. Jeong, 1999, «Mean-field Theory for Scale-free Random Networks.» Physica A 272:173–197.
Barabási, Albert-Laszlo, and EricBonabeau, 2003, «Scale-free Networks.» Scientific American 288(5): 50–59.
Baranski, J. V., and W. M. Petrusic, 1994, «The Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in Perceptual Judgments.» Perception and Psychophysics 55: 412–428.
Barber, В. M., and T. Odean, 1999, «Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors.» Working Paper.
Barbour, A. D., and G. Reinert, 2000, «Small worlds.» Preprint cond-mat/0006001 at http://xxx.lanl.gov.
Bar-Hillel, M., and W. A. Wagenaar, 1991, «The perception of randomness.» Advances in Applied Mathematics 12(4): 428–454.
Baron, Jonathan, 2000, Thinking and Deciding, 3rd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Barron, G., and I. Erev, 2003, «Small Feedback-based Decisions and Their Limited Correspondence to Description-based Decisions.» Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16:215–233.
Barrow, John D., 1998, Impossibility: The Limits of Science and the Science of Limits. London: Vintage.
Barrow, John D., and Frank J. Tipler, 1986, TheAnthropic Cosmological Principle. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Barrow-Green, June, 1996, Poincare and the Three Body Problem. History of Mathematics, Vol. n, American Mathematical Society.
Barthélémy, M., and L. A. N. Amaral, 1999, «Small-world Networks: Evidence for a Crossover Picture.» Physical Review Letters 82: 3180–3183.
Bastiat, Frédéric, 1862–1864, Oeuvres complétés de Frédéric Bastiat,6 vols. Paris: Guillaumin.
Batchelor, R. A., 1990, «All Forecasters Are Equal.» Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 8(1): 143–144.
-, 2001, «How Useful Are the Forecasts of Intergovernmental Agencies? The IMF and OECD Versus the Consensus.» Applied Economics 33(2): 225–235.
Bates, Elisabeth, 1994, «Modularity, Domain Specificity, and the Development of Language.» In D. C. Gajdusek, G. M. McKhann, and C. L. Bolis, eds., Evolution and Neurology of Language: Discussions in Neuroscience 10:1–2,136–149.
Bauman, A. O., R. В. Deber, and G. G. Thompson, 1991, «Overconfidence Among Physicians and Nurses: The 'micro certainty, macro certainty' phenomenon.» Social Science and Medicine 32:167–174.
Bayer, Hans Christian, 2003, Information: The New Language of Science. London: Orion Books, Ltd.
Bechara, A., A. R. Damasio, H. Damasio, and S. W. Anderson, 1994, «Insensitivity to Future Consequences Following Damage to Human Prefrontal Cortex.» Cognition 50:1–3, 7–15.
Becker, Lawrence C, 1998, A New Stoicism. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Bellamy, Edward, 1891, Cent ans apres, ou Van 2000, trad, de Panglais par Paul Rey; avec une pref. par M. Theodore Reinach. Paris: E. Dentu.
Benartzi, Shlomo, 2001. «Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company Stock,» Journal of Finance 56(5): 1747–1764.
Benartzi, Shlomo, and Richard Thaler, 1995, «Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle.» Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(1): 73–92.
Bénassy-Quéré, Agnés, 2002, «Euro/dollar: tout le mondepeutse tromper.» La Lettre du CEPII 215.
Benkirane, R., 2002, La complexite, vertiges etpromesses: 18 histoires de sciences. Paris: Le Pommier.
Berger, Peter L., and Thomas Luckmann, 1966, The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge. New York: Anchor Books.
Bernard, Andre, 2002, Rotten Rejections: The Letters That Publisher Wish They'd Never Sent. London: Chrysalis Books.
Bernard, Claude, 1878, La science experimental. Paris: J.-B. Bailliere.
Bernoulli, Daniel, 1954, «Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk.» Econometrica 22(1): 23–36.
Bernstein, Peter L., 1996, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: Wiley.
Berridge, Kent C, 2003, «Irrational Pursuits: Hyper-incentives from a Visceral Brain.» In I. Brocas and J. Carillo, eds., 2003.
Berry, M., 1978, «Regular and Irregular Motion, in Topics in Nonlinear Mechanics,» ed. S. Jorna, American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings No. 46,16–120.
Bevan, Edwyn, 1913, Stoics and Sceptics. Chicago: Ares Publishers, Inc. Bewes, Timothy, 2002, Reification: or The Anxiety of Late Capitalism. London: Verso.
Bewley, Ronald A., and Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002, «On the Herding Instinct of Interest Rate Forecasters.» Empirical Economics 27(3): 403–425.
Bhalla, U. S., and R. Iyengar, 1999, «Emergent Properties of Networks of Biological Signalling Pathways.» Science 283: 381–387.
Bharat, Barot, 2004, «How Accurate are the Swedish Forecasters on GDP-Growth, CPI–Inflation and Unemployment? 1993–2001.» Brussefo Economic ReviewICahiers Economiques de Bruxelles 47, 2 Editions du DULBEA, Universite libre de Bruxelles, 249–278.
Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, «A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.» Journal of Political Economy 100 (5):992–1026.
Binmore, K., 1999, «Why Experiment in Economics?» Economic Journal 109(453): 16–24.
Birnbaum, М. Н., 1983, «Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem.» American Journal of Psychology 96(1): 85–94.
Bjorkman, M., 1987, «A Note on Cue Probability Learning: What Conditioning Data Reveal About Cue Contrast.» Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 28: 226–232.
-, 1994, «Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge.» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 58: 386–405.
Bjorkman, M., P. Juslin, and A. Winman, 1993, «Realism of Confidence in Sensory Discrimination: The Underconfidence Phenomenon.» Perception and Psychophysics 54: 75–81.
Blake, Carole, 1999, From Pitch to Publication. London: Pan.
Blake, David, Michael Beenstock, and Valerie Brasse, 1986, «The Performance of UK Exchange Rate Forecasters.» Economic Journal 96(384):986–999.
Blaug, Mark, 1992, The Methodology of Economics, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Bloch, Marc, 1953, The Historian's Craft. New York: Vintage Books.
Blyth, M. R. Abdelal, and Cr. Parsons, 2005, Constructivist Political Economy. Preprint, forthcoming, 2006: Oxford University Press.
Board, J., C. Sutcliffe, and E. Patrinos, 2000, «Performance of Covered Calls.» European Journal of Finance 6(1): 1–17.
Bocarra, Nino, 2004, Modeling Complex Systems. Heidelberg: Springer.
Boettke, Peter J., Christopher J. Coyne, and Peter T. Leeson, 2006, «High Priests and Lowly Philosophers: The Battle for the Soul of Economics,» a forthcoming article in the Case Western Law Review.
Boots, M., and A. Sasaki, 1999, «„Small worlds“ and the Evolution of Virulence: Infection Occurs Locally and at a Distance,» Proceedings of the Royal Society of London В266:1933–1938.
Bostrom, Nick, 2002, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. London: Routledge.
Bouchaud, J.-P., and M. Potters, 2003, Theory of Financial Risks and Derivatives Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
BouRDè, Guy, and Herve Martin, 1989, Les ecoles historiques. Paris: Editions du Seuil.
Bourdieu, Pierre, 1992, Les regies de I'art. Paris: Editions du Seuil.
-, 1996, Sur la television suivi de l'emprise du journalisme. Paris: Raison d'Agir.
-, 2000, Esquisse d'une theorie de la pratique. Paris: Editions de Seuil.
Bouvier, Alban, ed., 1999, Pareto aujourd'hui. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
Boyer, Pascal, 2001, Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of Religious Thought. New York: Basic Books.
Braudel, Fernand, 1953, «Georges Gurvitch ou la discontinuite du social.» Annales E.S.C. 8: 347–361.
-, 1969, Ecrits sur Vhistoire. Paris: Flammarion.
-, 1985, La Mediterranee: Vespace et Vhistoire. Paris: Flammarion.
-, 1990, Ecrits sur Vhistoire II. Paris: Flammarion.
Braun, P. A., and I. Yaniv, 1992, «A Case Study of Expert Judgment: Economists' Probabilities Versus Base-rate Model Forecasts.» Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 5: 217–231.
- Голод и изобилие. История питания в Европе - Массимо Монтанари - Публицистика
- Еврейский синдром - 1 - Эдуард Ходос - Публицистика
- Культура времен Апокалипсиса - Адам Парфрей - Публицистика
- Цена победы. Россия. Лучшее из Истории. Эхо Москвы - Олеся Рябцева - Публицистика
- Америка глазами эмигранта. Том 2 - Элеонора Александровна Мандалян - Прочие приключения / Публицистика / Путешествия и география
- Следопыты. Из опыта служебно-розыскного собаководства сотрудников уголовного розыска Пермской области - А. Ворошнин - Публицистика
- Делократы. Возможен ли «русский прорыв»? - Юрий Мухин - Публицистика
- Россия будущего - Андрей Буровский - Публицистика
- Плохо сделано в Китае - Пол Мидлер - Публицистика
- Революция консерваторов. Война миров - Владимир Соловьев - Публицистика